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Oracle Spooks Slice of MySQL Market: 451 Poll

An Oracle acquisition could run off 15% of all open source users and 14.4% of current MySQL users

MySQL Journal on Ulitzer

Oracle's ownership of MySQL could run off some open source and MySQL users according to a poll the 451 Group took among its CAOS user community, CAOS standing for Commercial Adoption of Open Source. There were 347 respondents, the researcher says, and from their answers it calculates that:

  • The use of MySQL will drop from 82.1% to 78.7% in 2011 and 72.3% 2014.
  • An Oracle acquisition could run off 15% of all open source users and 14.4% of current MySQL users. At least they told 451 that they would be less likely to use MySQL if Oracle acquires it. Of course that has probably been said by users of every company Oracle has ever acquired.
  • On the other hand, 6.3% of all open source users and 5.6% of MySQL users are more likely to use MySQL if it's acquired by Oracle.
  • Use of MariaDB, the Monty Widenius fork that the European Commission appears to be bending backward for, should rise from zero to 3.5% of all users in 2011 and 3.7% in 2014.
  • 57.9% of all users and 63.9% of MySQL users said they would continue to use MySQL where appropriate.
  • Oracle Database use is expected to rise from 19.3% to 19.6% in 2011 and 21.6% in 2014.
  • PostgreSQL use should also grow, from 27.1% of all users today to 30.5% in 2011 and stay there through 2014.
  • 17.6% of all respondents and 16.8% of MySQL users think Oracle should be allowed to keep MySQL.
  • 32.6% of all respondents and 34% of MySQL users think Oracle should turn MySQL over to an independent foundation for continued development.
  • 4.3% of all respondents and 3.9% of MySQL users think that Oracle should be forced to divest the property to another vendor, which is what Widenius, MySQL's co-founder, wants.
  • 13.8% of all respondents and 12.3% of MySQL users plum don't care.

The Widenius set does care, however, and means to hold a press conference in Brussels Wednesday, the day before the closed-door hearing at which Oracle will again attempt to persuade the European Commission to let it swallow Sun whole - MySQL and all.

Oracle will doubtless call everyone's attention to Eben Moglen's contention that the EC has been led down the garden path - probably by Widenius and friends - about MySQL's licensing terms and that the issues raised "do not warrant a conclusion that this transaction threatens significant anticompetitive consequences."

Eben of course is the lawyer who pretty much wrote the GPL and has been its primary interpreter.

Florian Mueller, Widenius' attack dog, feels he needs to crush Eben's argument and has submitted to the EC a 31-page analysis picking it apart and suggesting he's a Sun shill as he will be happy to explain on Wednesday.

More Stories By Maureen O'Gara

Maureen O'Gara the most read technology reporter for the past 20 years, is the Cloud Computing and Virtualization News Desk editor of SYS-CON Media. She is the publisher of famous "Billygrams" and the editor-in-chief of "Client/Server News" for more than a decade. One of the most respected technology reporters in the business, Maureen can be reached by email at maureen(at)sys-con.com or paperboy(at)g2news.com, and by phone at 516 759-7025. Twitter: @MaureenOGara

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