YOUR FEEDBACK
Three RIA Platforms Compared: Adobe Flex, Google Web Toolkit, and OpenLaszlo
NN wrote: Yeah you are right GWT is poor man's Flex. After using GWT on two...


2007 West
GOLD SPONSORS:
Active Endpoints
Your SOA Needs BPEL for Orchestration
BEA
Virtualized SOA: Adaptive Infrastructure for Demanding Applications
Nexaweb
Overcoming Bandwidth Challenges with Nexaweb
TIBCO
What is Service Virtualization?
SILVER SPONSORS:
WSO2
Using Web Services Technologies and FOSS Solutions
Click For 2007 East
Event Webcasts

2008 East
PLATINUM SPONSORS:
Appcelerator
Think Fast: Accelerate AJAX Development with Appcelerator
GOLD SPONSORS:
DreamFace Interactive
The Ultimate Framework for Creating Personalized Web 2.0 Mashups
ICEsoft
AJAX and Social Computing for the Enterprise
Kaazing
Enterprise Comet: Real–Time, Real–Time, or Real–Time Web 2.0?
Nexaweb
Now Playing: Desktop Apps in the Browser!
Sun
jMaki as an AJAX Mashup Framework
POWER PANELS:
The Business Value
of RIAs
What Lies Beyond AJAX?
KEYNOTES:
Douglas Crockford
Can We Fix the Web?
Anthony Franco
2008: The Year of the RIA
Click For 2007 Event Webcasts
SYS-CON.TV
TOP THREE LINKS YOU MUST CLICK ON


Is the Rise of Google the End of the Game for Everyone Else?
Only two years old as a public company, yet...

Digg This!

As I write this, the stock price of Google, Inc. just exceeded $500 for the first time in the company's still-brief (two-year) history as a public company. That gives the search colossus a market cap of $150 billion, many times in excess of its physical assets - currently valued at $10.2 billion.

Whether the latest surge in value is being driven by the perception that Microsoft may be losing its golden touch, or whether it is Google's sheer Web 2.0-style inventiveness that is causing investors to pile into its stock, matters not. What matters is that the company that snapped up video-sharing site YouTube for $1.65 billion now doesn't seem quite so profligate. Everything is relative.

But why, many outside the industry are wondering, is the company started eight years ago in a Silicon Valley garage by Stanford University graduate students Larry Page and Sergey Brin already worth $150 billion, when the one started 24 years ago by Andy Bechtolsheim, Bill Joy, Vinod Khosla, and Scott McNealy - a.k.a. Stanford University Network, now Sun Micrososystems - is currently worth just $19.5 billion?

The answer, ironically, may lie in Andy Bechtolsheim. Because not only is he famous for being Sun's "employee No. 1," he is also equally famous for being the author of a $100,000 check that represented nearly one-tenth of Google's total capital when it was founded, back in 1998 when it was still running off the google.stanford.edu domain - in other words, the Stanford University website.

Although Bechtolsheim rejoined Sun in February 2004 when it acquired the privately-held company he co-founded, Kealia, based in Palo Alto, California, Sun's first "disruptive innovator" is uniquely independent in spirit. What he saw in Google back then, long before it became The Big G, while very different from what we see today, must have captivated him: their front end of public search and advertising algorithms, he must have realized, had unusual and disruptive potential.

Just five years later, another Sun employee, Eric Schmidt, experienced a similar epiphany. In a vision famously summarized later as "The Network Is the Computer," Schmidt wrote: "When the network becomes as fast as the processor, the computer hollows out and spreads across the network." Under such new circumstances, Schmidt figured, profits would flow very differently:

"Not to the companies making the fastest processors or best operating systems, but to the companies with the best networks and the best search and sort algorithms."

Schmidt left Sun and, as we now know, gravitated (via a stint at Novell) toward the Chairmanship of the very company that was by then most clearly demonstrating the accuracy of his 2003 vision.

So the answer to the $150BN vs $19.5BN market cap question above is that Google is still near the beginning of an Internet technology cycle that could last an entire generation, while Sun stands at the end of an i-Technology cycle that is already 24 years old.

But Bechtolsheim was once asked "So is the game over?" and I have never forgotten his reply: "Only if no one changes the game."

While the last few years may have been disappointing for people who thrive on accelerated progress in technology, the world is moving faster again. Lest I be accused of puffing air into Bubble 2.0, though - especially since this is the month when I typically poll so many minds for their i-Technology predictions - it would perhaps be as well if I were just to remind readers of technology visionary George Gilder's sobering words:

"Amid the beckoning fantasies of futurism, the purpose of whatever comes next - like that of today's petapede - will be to serve the ultimate, and still the only general-purpose, petascale computer: the human brain."

Google figured the Web's first killer app. Web search now assists us n times a day in thinking, writing, and doing. And Google now helps us with communicating and social computing too. But if the network is the computer and the ultimate computer is the human brain, then maybe Java can help change the game by making the human brain the network? After all, where Eric Schmidt's Google goes, can Jonathan Schwartz's Sun - with its humongous R&D budget - be so very many steps behind?

Enjoy the technologically diverse predictions showcased in this issue. One thing alone is certain about the future: like it or loathe it, we're all headed there together!

About Jeremy Geelan
Jeremy Geelan is Sr. Vice-President of SYS-CON Media & Events. He is Conference Chair of the AJAXWorld Conference & Expo series, of the 3rd International Virtualization Conference & Expo and founder of Web 2.0 Journal, AJAXWorld Magazine and other major SYS-CON titles. From 2000-6, as first editorial director and then group publisher of SYS-CON Media, he was responsible for the development of all new titles and i-Technology portals for the firm, and regularly represents SYS-CON at conferences and trade shows, speaking to technology audiences both in North America and overseas. He is executive producer and presenter of "Power Panels with Jeremy Geelan" on SYS-CON.TV.

LATEST JAVA STORIES & POSTS
Chris Keene's Prescription for Curing the Java Flu
At WaveMaker, we have hitched our wagon to Java so I hope very much that JavaOne is showing us the ghost of Java present, not the ghost of Java to come. The Sun promise to put Java runtimes everywhere is meaningless if nobody wants to develop for those runtimes. Adobe and Microso
Virtualization Journal Attracts JavaOne Attendees to SYS-CON Media Booth
Virtualization Journal now reaches more than 60,000 online readers with monthly digital editions and weekly newsletters. The premier issue of the magazine's print edition, which debuts on May 6, 2008, at JavaOne in San Francisco, as a media sponsor of this event, will be availabl
Real-Time Kaazing Solution and Sun's Glassfish Forge RIA Alliance
Kaazing Corporation and Sun Microsystems announced an alliance to deliver the scalable and advanced real-time Web 2.0 platform. The integration between Kaazing's real-time Rich Internet Application (RIA) solution, Enterprise Comet, and Sun Microsystems' open source Java EE applic
Sun Challenges Linux
Sun's mule train has finally pulled into Indiana after three years on the road. Indiana is the Linux-friendly Fedora-like OpenSolaris project meant to move the Solaris-shy Linux community off Linux and on to Solaris tempted by Solaris widgetry like the highly scalable, rollback-e
AJAX World - Sun Talks Up its Late-to-the-Party AIR-Silverlight Rival
At Java One this week Sun has been selling its year -old-but-still-upcoming - and definitely late-to-the-party - Adobe AIR- and Microsoft Silverlight-competitive JavaFX Rich Client environment as a potential revenue-generator capable of putting ads on mobile applications and JavaF
MySQL Backs Off Closed Source Plan
MySQL has backed off a plan to charge for some encryption and compression backup widgetry in the next version of the database - and, heavens, NOT OPEN SOURCE THE STUFF, an idea it trotted a few weeks ago and predictably caught hell for. Sun, which bought MySQL for a billion dolla
SUBSCRIBE TO THE WORLD'S MOST POWERFUL NEWSLETTERS
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR RSS FEEDS & GET YOUR SYS-CON NEWS LIVE!
Click to Add our RSS Feeds to the Service of Your Choice:
Google Reader or Homepage Add to My Yahoo! Subscribe with Bloglines Subscribe in NewsGator Online
myFeedster Add to My AOL Subscribe in Rojo Add 'Hugg' to Newsburst from CNET News.com Kinja Digest View Additional SYS-CON Feeds
Publish Your Article! Please send it to editorial(at)sys-con.com!

Advertise on this site! Contact advertising(at)sys-con.com! 201 802-3021

SYS-CON FEATURED WHITEPAPERS

ADS BY GOOGLE
BREAKING JAVA NEWS
Day Software to Present at Henry Stewart DAM Show
Day Software (SWX:DAYN) (OTCQX:DYIHY), a leading provider of global content management